Aviation Emissions and evaluation of Reduction Options - Modeling System (AERO-MS)

Overview

The AERO-MS is a tool that can examine the impacts of different policies intended to reduce international and domestic aviation GHG emissions. The model is able to assess the consequences of a wide range of policy measures aimed at reducing aviation CO2 emissions (including technological, operational and market based measures).

Policy measures can affect the supply side costs of the industry, which may lead to airlines increasing prices to customers. The AERO-MS forecasts the extent to which demand for air travel is reduced due to higher prices, and the changes in the structure of the global fleet with respect to fuel efficient technology.

The effects of policy options are computed relative to a future scenario, whereby a scenario reflects an expectation of autonomous developments with respect to air transport and flight activities without emission reduction options being imposed. All AERO-MS computations begin with a baseline situation representing the air transport system for the Base Year (presently 2006).

History

The development of the AERO-MS was initiated by the Dutch Government’s in the early 1990s. A consortium of consultants (NLR, MVA and TAKS BV) developed the AERO-MS over several phases in the period 1992 to 2001.

EASA took over ownership of the AERO-MS in 2009 and initiated a Study on AViation Economic modelling (SAVE) which updated the original AERO-MS Base Year of 1992 to 2006. As part of this project, all the model inputs have been updated and brought in line with the new Base Year. This AERO-MS Unified Database now includes the EUROCONTROL WISDOM Operations Database which contains a detailed record of aviation movements in the Base Year.  For 2006, the Unified Database records 123,025 airport-pairs with 33.1 million civil flights. Airline cost and fare data were updated using information from IATA and ICAO. The update of aircraft type input data was based on fleet inventory properties from the EUROCONTROL PRISME Fleet 2, OAG Fleet Databases, ICAO emissions databank and the FESG retirement curves. Finally the specification of aircraft performance characteristics were based on the EUROCONTROL BADA data. Consequently AERO-MS is now based on internationally well-reputed data sources.

Policy Assessments

Since 1995, the AERO-MS has formed a key part of over 20 international studies where the results have provided a quantified basis for policy judgement related to environmental protection.  AERO-MS and its underlying databases are also now being evaluated for usage to support a wider range of EASA regulatory impact assessments (RIAs) covering issues in the area of safety.

Access to and use of AERO-MS by third parties is possible under a License Agreement for appropriate causes.  Previous major applications of the AERO-MS are listed below.  

ICAO and CAEP

  • Global analysis of emission charges and taxes for the “Focal Point on Charges” (CAEP/4:  1997-1998).
  • Analysis of Market Based Options (MBO) for the reduction of global air transport related CO2 emissions for CAEP’s Forecast and Economic Support Group (CAEP/5:  2000).
  • Analysis of Voluntary Agreements and Open Emission Trading systems for the limitation of CO2 emissions from aviation. (CAEP/6:  2002-2004).
  • Designing a Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading System for International Aviation. (ICAO:  2003).
  • Analysis of Market Based Measures (MBMs) with deminimis threshold options whereby carriers from smaller air transport countries are excluded from the MBMs. (ICAO:  2011). 

EC

  • Assignment for the European Commission to analyse the effects of a taxation of kerosene (1998-1999). 
  • Emission related route charges to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions from air transport in Europe (2002).
  • Several studies on the effects of including aviation in the European Emission Trading System - EU ETS (2004-2007).
  • Analysis of policies to reduce the climate change impact of aviation NOx emissions (2008). 

Others

  • Comparison of UNFCCC data on emissions from domestic and international aviation to support discussion on commitments of national governments between UNFCCC and ICAO (UNFCCC:  2003).  
  • Study for IATA to inform the development of an IATA position on climate change and emission trading (IATA:  2005).
  • Allocation of allowances for aviation in the EU ETS -  the impact on the profitability of the aviation sector under high levels of auctioning. (WWF:  2007).